Who's to Blame?

This year's edition of the Minnesota Twins has struggled since the onset. Coming out of spring training there was high hopes surrounding the 2-time defending AL Central Champs. There was no reason to believe that the season would begin this poorly. The Twins had a successful spring posting a Grapefruit League best 20-12 record. But the day the regular season started everything changed. The pitching wasn't effective, bats went quiet, and defense which is typically a strength has become a liability. All these factors have contributed to the 4-10 start.

I think the Front Office deserves some of the blame for the current situation the Twins are in. It all goes back to last season when the club acquired Matt Capps for our top prospect Wilson Ramos. Not only did we lose a good prospect we took on Capps' salary or 7.15 Million after we offered him arbitration last winter. Also we allowed Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch, Brian Fuetes, and Pat Neshek (via trade). Also they chose not to resign Nick Punto and Orlando Hudson. Along with trading JJ Hardy and Jose Morales. The Organization has put a lot of faith in its unproven players. There has been a handful of injuries which has hampered the performance of the team. Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and Kevin Slowey have already landed on the disabled list.

Also, many of the regulars just haven't produced like we all expected them too considering the amount of money they are making.

Player	Salary	2011 Average	Career Average
Joe Mauer	23    Million	.235	.326
Justin Morneau	15    Million	.208	.285
Michael Cuddyer	10.5 Million	.204	.269
Delmon Young	5.3   Million	.220	.291

Player	Salary	2011 ERA	Career ERA
Joe Nathan	11,250,000	8.44	2.77
Matt Capps	7,150,000	4.50	3.38
Francisco Liriano	4,300,000	9.42	4.11
Brian Duensing	462,000	4.15	3.08

 This shows that many of our key players have underperformed thus far into the 2011 season and they all have the potential to turn it around. We are just 2 weeks into the season but it's going to take an entire team effort to turn the season around get back to where we need to be. Once everyone gets back and healthy I expect our hometown nine to return to form and make a late season run like so many Ron Gardenhire managed teams have done in the past.

--NX

Big Win

Although its early in the 2011 campaign yesterdays comeback win in the Bronx over the Yankees in extra innings may prove to be big for the Twins. The Twins offense has lacked what we had all last season. Last year we could count on Joe Mauer, Delmon Young and Justin Morneau (when healthy) to have timely hitting and hitting for average. So far this season they have a combined .157 (8 for 51) batting average. Last night though we did see some positive signs, the Twins showed some resilence coming back from a 4-0 deficit with a 4 run 8th inning. We did to the Yankees what they so often do to us.

Although it was just one win it may prove to be what we need to get this season jump started. So far the 2011 Twins haven't looked like a Ron Gardenhire managed club typically has in the past. The errors are up, runs are down, and pitching has been less than satisfactory. Through the first 5 games our teams batting average is just .205 and the team era is 5.86 both statistics rank near the bottom of the league. It is just 5 games in and we have made some improvements over the last couple nights, it still may be a cause for some concern. The Twins entered the year with so many question marks and you wonder how many times Ron Gardenhire can piece together division championship ball club.

There has been a few positive signs even though the stars of the ball club have struggled thus far. Jason Kubel and Denard Span are off to strong starts after taking a step backwards last season. Also, Joe Nathan had a 1-2-3 inning last night to save the game for the Twins after looking shaky in his first appearance against Toronto on Sunday. The Twins home opener is Friday against Oakland and I look for the play to be improved in front the 40,000 Twins crazed fans in the friendly confines of Target Field.

Free Kevin Slowey

There are a lot of bad starting pitching in baseball, I mean usually the back end of the rotation is a revolving door of starters due to injuries and also simply in effectiveness. After reading this, I began to think how the Twins rotation should be situated, since they have 3 or 4 pitchers (depending if you count Pavano) that essentially are the same. These pitchers are Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Baker. We will leave Pavano out of this because he is slated to be the Twins #2 starter and was never in the battle for the last 2 spots in the rotation.


Going into this season for the first time in quite some time the Twins weakness is there pitching as a whole. They have become an offensive team over the last couple of years. The bullpen is in shambles after the loss of Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch. But with Joe Nathan back in the mix after missing last year after Tommy John surgery the Twins bullpen should be at least average. But the rotation is the thing that scares me most.


So the question is, did the Twins make the right decision by picking Blackburn and Baker? I believe they made the right call with Baker, but not with Blackburn. I even threw out Blackburn's 2010 season where he had elbow problems. But other then the 2008 Tie Breaker game he hasn't been to impressive.


So I've crunched the numbers. Scott Baker is the best pitcher of the bunch, based on the numbers. So it is down to Kevin Slowey vs. Nick Blackburn.

Predictions

So the baseball season is upon us. As usual it is time for my world famous predictions column.

Usually when I write these types of posts I am a slave to my unrealistic expectations, as I have picked my AL MVP on B.J. Upton's talent and potential instead of actual results.  So this year I plan to base these picks on actual results. 

This is the year Matt Weiters finally "gets it".

After this year everyone will know the names of..

AL- Adam Jones, Carlos Santana, Alex Gordon, Jeremy Hellickson.

NL- Brandon Belt, Dexter Fowler, Jay Bruce.

B.J. Upton will finally put it all together and be the Monster all the scout said he would be. ( I had to, it is a tradition.)

Clay Buchholz is for real.

AROD is back.

Adrian Gonzalez will hit .340.

Joe Mauer will hit .350+.

Troy Tulowitzki will over take Hanley Ramirez for best SS on the planet. (if he hasn't already, he is in my book.)

Early Spring Award Thoughts

Usually when I write these types of posts I am a slave to my unrealistic expectations, as I have picked my AL MVP on B.J. Upton's talent and potential instead of actual results. Here is last years picks, scroll to the bottom for awards. So this year I plan to base these picks on actual results. So here are my picks, which will be slightly modified after Spring Training concludes.


National League Awards


MVP
Troy Tulowitzki- He would have one it last year if he didn't break his wrist. Because realistically in the 33 games he missed due to the wrist injury he could have at least added 5 HR, 20 RBI, 20 R, and thats on the low end because he is a notorious second half player with a stat line the last 3 years (2008-2010) .333/.400/.578 (avg/obp/slug) with 39 HR, 146 RBI, 125 R, and a first half line as .252/.331/.451, with 28 HR, 87 RBI, 113 R. So the difference over the last 3 years is .081/.069/.127 and 11 HR, 59 RBI, 12 R.


So its safe to assume over a month he could put up those numbers. So add the conservative stats to his year end total, keeping the rate stats the same, would look something like this. .315/.381/.568 with 32 HR, 115 RBI, 109 R, add in his Gold Glove defense and he would have probably won the 2010 MVP. Also with him in the line-up for 140+ game I think the Rockies make the playoffs and that would have made his case even better.


My Projected stat line .310/.400/.587 with 34 HR, 125 RBI, 110 R, 15 SB, 37 2B, 5 3B.


Cy Young
Tim Lincecum- This is the toughest call of all the awards and could easily change.  But I believe Tim will win, unless he has some trouble dealing with those extra innings he had when he was dominating opposing line-ups during the 2010 Giants World Series run. I don't think he will have any hangover effect because jumps in innings has never affected this athletic freak before. Also in his favor is pitching in the NL West with all there pitcher parks to keep his ERA down. Plus the Padres offense is atrocious, the Diamondbacks strike out a ton, and the Dodgers only has 3 hitters that might scare you depending on if Kemp returns to 2009 form.


He has lead the league in strikeouts every one of his full years in the Majors, and I don't see that changing. I see him improving his his WHIP back to his career rate of 1.182 range and that should help the rest of his stats and should lead to a lower ERA and a higher win total. I dont seeing him having another month like he had in August 2010, I think his mechanics got messed up just enough and he corrected them.


My Projected stat line 19-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 255 K, 81 BB.


Rookie of the Year
Aroldis Chapman- This is an early prediction and will definitely change if he doesn't have a chance of becoming the Reds closer. More on this award after Spring Training when we know the roles of the Rookies.




American League


MVP
Robinson Cano- Back to back 200 hit seasons, back to back 25+ HR seasons, back to back years hitting over .315. I mean whats not to love with this guy. He just turned 28, a age when people usually his their primes, so he should improve his numbers and he plays in a great HR park for LH so he should have 25+ HR easy with potential for 30+ and if he puts up good RBI numbers (even though they are a flawed statistic) it will put him in good standing with voters.


I think he will battle Joe Mauer for the batting title this year, if he can win it and put up similar number to last year in the counting stats he should have a good chance to win the MVP.


My projected stat line .335/.412/.555 with 32 HR, 120 RBI, 110 R, 40 2B, 3 3B.


Cy Young
Clay Buchholz- A bold call that I said I wasn't going to make, basing an award more on potential than actual results. I know it was only one season and the year before he got sent down the Pawtucket. But I believe he has turned the corner.  He lead the league in ERA+ at 187 and was second among AL pitchers in WAR. 


But the thing is he still needs improve his K/BB and K/9 rates, if he has a 8+ K/9 and a 2.5+ K/BB, which he has the talent to do, he would become a monster and would definitely contend for a Cy Young.  


Okay, so my biggest reason for saying he will win this award is he will be at best the Red Sox 3rd starter, behind Beckett and Lester, if not the 4th starter behind those two and Lackey. This means he will usually be facing other teams weaker starters, who in turn should give up more runs, thus making it easier for Clay to pile up wins. If he is around how good he was last year and with the better offense that the Red Sox will employ this should make it easier for him to win a few extra games and possibly get 20+ wins, which usually guarantees a pitcher a Cy Young. 


I guess we will see if he makes the leap, stands pat or regresses. He has the talent to win a Cy, hopefully he can put it all together.




So there are my thoughts, more to come after Spring Training is over, when rookies roles are more clearly defined, all of the pre-season injuries that could derail a season happen and stuff that you can't account for until opening day happens.


Overall it should be a fun season to watch and see how everything shapes up through out the divisions and leagues. To see what players breakout, what stars take the leap into superstardom. To see what rookies help their teams to pthe playoff and ultimately a World Series title. 


As always I am excited for the season to start to see what is in store.


Division winner and playoff predictions to come soon. 


-B

Twins Pitching Conundrum

Twins Currently have 6 players who have held a spot in the rotation over the past few seasons. Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Brian Duensing. Going into the season Manager Ron Gardenhire has  few decisions to make about the makeup of his starting rotation and the relievers. Liriano, Pavano, Baker and Duensing all seem to have their spots locked up because their contract situations and their past pitching performances. The real questions are with Kevin Slowey's health and Nick Blackburn's sinker. Both players have proven that they can be effective in a starting role when all is right with them.

The bullpen has been left with large holes with the departures of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jon Rauch. All three left via free agency in the offseason along with Brian Fuentes whom we claimed off waivers from the Angels last August. In past years we have had comparable questions going into Opening Day and typically the Twins fill from within rather than giving multi year contracts to free agents. Which is what they chose to do this season as well. My belief is Kevin Slowey will fill the long relief role to begin the season along with lefty Glen Perkins who showed signs of improvement during last September when rosters were expanded. Jose Mijares is returning as a middle relief guy. Also, the return of Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek will help out considerably if they return to pre-injury form. Matt Capps showed he could be reliable as the closer recording 16 saves and posting a 2.00 ERA after replacing Jon Rauch last season after being traded from Washington. He will most likely be the teams set up man if Joe Nathan is good to go heading into the season. This leaves a few more spots to be filled by opening day. Possible candidates for the remaining relief spots are Jeff Manship, Scott Diamond, Dusty Hughes, and Alex Burnett.

-NX

Francisco Liriano on the trading block?

Francisco Liriano name has come up recently in trade talk (read more about it here).  The main questions to ask are as follows, realistically what can the Twins get for Liriano? And why would the Twins trade the only pitcher on their Major League roster with the makings of an actual ace?


Realistically what can the Twins get for Liriano?


This is a tricky question, because it depends if you believe that he will continue to rise back to his 2006 level of dominance.  That and what team are you gonna deal with, because depending on how much they need a #1 or #2 starter will drastically affect their offer.  There is no denying that Liriano project to be at least a great #2 starter in this league, and that is why the Yankees are looking at him.  But he has the stuff and talent to become a #1 starter, but it get cloudy to wear abouts in the league he would stand as a #1, if he returned to his 2006 dominance he would be at least a Top 10 #1. 


So realistically what can the Twins ask for.  well you always start out high to see if a bidder bites.  So since his name has only come up with the Yankees we will look at what they have to offer.


Jesus Montero- Currently the #3 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He is currently a catcher but has defensive liabilities ala Victor Martinez and with Joe Mauer trenched  behind the plate he would be moved.  the Yankees have been working him in the OF and he has the bat to stay there.  He is pretty can't-miss as far as a prospect goes and would help the Twins with his offensive talent.  But I don't believe the Yankees would trade him, cause the wavered at including him in the Cliff Lee deal.


The other two names that are mentioned are Ivan Nova and Joba Chamberlain, but I really don't seeing the Twins trading Liriano for one or really even both.  They have been burned before on trades like this (ex. Johan Santana).  But even if they wanted to look at these two guys nova projected to be a back or the rotation guy and I don't believe anything can help Joba.  But I could be wrong, Joba might just need a change of scenery.  He did have killer stuff when he came into the league.


But unless Montero was included I wouldn't trade Liriano if i were the Twins.


Why would the Twins trade the only pitcher on their Major League roster with the makings of an actual ace?


So why would the Twins even think about trading Liriano? The simplest answer would be cost and not knowing whether they can resign or not. Well Liriano has another year of arbitration which if he doesn't take the twins initial offer would likely be in the 5-7 million dollar range.  But if the Twins were smart they would try and sign him to a Jon Lester type deal 5 years for $30 million over the length of the contract, they could either back load the contract like the Red Sox did ( years/$30M (2009-13), 09:$1M, 10:$3.75M, 11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)) or they could front load it just in case he gets hurt later on in the contract (as an example just flip the payments the Sox gave Lester) or offer him a Zack Greinke type deal 4 years/$38M, either way that is a cost efficient way to keep a potential ace.  The Twins also could keep his salary the same annually ($6M a year in a Lester type deal, and $9.5M in a Greinke type deal).


My opinion is try and sign him this year before he possibly explodes and wants a Johan type deal. Sign him early before his success gets to his head and you can still afford him. Also you don't want to have to rush to a trade partner and hurt his potential trade value and get a bad haul.


I don't think these talk are very serious. But they could be. I guess we will see.


-B

High Hopes for the 2011 Season!

I as and many Twins fans alike, were a little disapointed in the outcome of the 2010 season. A lot of key injuries plagued our season although we still put up great numbers. Now coming into the 2011 season, hopefully that won't be the case. We have the talent that ranks right up there with the elites of the league. We just need to put up some numbers and stay healthy this season. We have all the key ingredients of a championship team. We made a key upgrade at middle infield this offseason witht the addition of Nishioka. This was our biggest weekness in addition to our bullpen. Hopefully with signing Yound and Thome, we can maybe think about putting Cuddyer at third to help anchor the left side defensively and give us a power hitter at third. So with all that said, our bullpen is probably not as strong as we would like it to be, but hopefully with Nathan, Neshek and Capps healthy, we can put up some solid numbers this year. The future looks bright for the Twins not only this year, but many years to come. Minnesota baseball is becoming an elite team of the MLB with the new stadium. We now have the money to compete with some major free agencies, the front office just needs to become a little more liberal than in years past. Can't wait for the Spring Training. GO TWINS! In Gardy we trust!

KP

Spring Training is Near

As we approach the 2011 spring training campaign many questions loom over the Twins. Among the leading storylines is the questions about the bullpen including Joe Nathan's injury status, Justin Morneau's concussion symptoms and our new shortstop Nishioka. As a diehard Twins fan it was an unsettling offseason watching our main division rivals add key pieces while the Twins did everything but that. As the 2 time defending AL Central Champs, winning the division is not enough anymore. We as Twins fans expect a championship and the front office didn't do much to help our case moving towards the 2011 campaign. But considering how much success we did have last season with many of the key parts having less productive years than the previous season. Among these players are Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Denard Span. I expect each of these players to improve upon their offensive numbers and make up for the loses we had in the offeseason. This is why I expect the Twins way of playing baseball to prevail as we pursue our 2nd Al Central 3 peat in the last decade. The Twins are much more than Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau. We are an organization that runs from Minneapolis, MN to Fort Myers, FL and to Rochester, NY. Each part of the organization will play a key role if the Twins are going continue our dominance over the AL Central Division....8 Days til the first game of the spring. In Gardy we Trust.
-NX

Delmon Young avoids arbitration

Delmon Young, the Twins RBI leader from a year ago avoided arbitration today by signing a one year deal worth $5.375 million.  I believe this is a good deal for the Twins.  On the basis of Delmon's 2.1 WAR on Fangraphs.  Fangraphs calculated the worth of each win to be $4.5 m / win (win values explained here), so with those calculations Young was worth $9.45 m last year.  This deal could be a steal for the Twins this year if Delmon actually "got it" last year like it seemed, with his ISO going from .l42 to .195, this means he was hitting the ball harder then he has ever done so in the Major's.  Delmon also cut down his K% from 23.3% to 16.2%, which still is high, but not so high that it hurts his value substantially.  Young did all this while his BABIP dropped from .338 to .312.  So all in all he lost some luck but hit for more power than he ever has in the Major Leagues.

I believe Delmon will continue to improve as a player because he is still young (24) and he has shown that with some patience and some more plate discipline he can be a real force in the Twins line-up for years to come.

-B