Predictions

So the baseball season is upon us. As usual it is time for my world famous predictions column.

Usually when I write these types of posts I am a slave to my unrealistic expectations, as I have picked my AL MVP on B.J. Upton's talent and potential instead of actual results.  So this year I plan to base these picks on actual results. 

This is the year Matt Weiters finally "gets it".

After this year everyone will know the names of..

AL- Adam Jones, Carlos Santana, Alex Gordon, Jeremy Hellickson.

NL- Brandon Belt, Dexter Fowler, Jay Bruce.

B.J. Upton will finally put it all together and be the Monster all the scout said he would be. ( I had to, it is a tradition.)

Clay Buchholz is for real.

AROD is back.

Adrian Gonzalez will hit .340.

Joe Mauer will hit .350+.

Troy Tulowitzki will over take Hanley Ramirez for best SS on the planet. (if he hasn't already, he is in my book.)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL CENTRAL

1.) Minnesota Twins- No matter what they always find a way to win. (93-69)

2.) Chicago White Sox- A bounce back year from Gordon Beckham and a great staff, could spell disaster for the Twins, but I dont think the White Sox can pull it out. (89-73)

3.) Detroit Tigers- Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander are beasts, but after that they are pretty mediocre. (83-81)

4.) Cleaveland Indians- After this year everyone will know who Carlos Santana is, as he will join Mauer, McCann, and Posey as an elite catcher. (75-87)

5. Kansas City Royals- hey have the best farm system in baseball, hands down. They will contend by 2014, but it is 2011 and they have no chance. (69-93)

AL EAST

1.) Boston Red Sox- If the back end of the rotation pitches like they can, they are in line to win upwards of a 100 games. Bounce back year for Papelbon. If not Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings. (96-66)

2.) Tampa Bay Rays- The loss of Garza hurts, but a bounce back year from James Shields will help lessen the blow. (92-70) WC

3.) New York Yankees- Don't think the starting pitching will hold up after Sabathia, but the offense will score runs in bunches, like always. (90-72)

4.) Toronto Blue Jays- Brandon Morrow may be the best right handed pitcher in the AL East. Team has a ton of power, but do they have the pitching to stay with the Big 3? (85-77)

5.) Balitimore Orioles- They have young left handed SP and what should be a pretty good line-up. But they still will finish last. (72-90)

AL WEST

1.) Oakland Athletics- Best starting five in all of baseball, will win alot of 1 run games. (91-71)

2.) Texas Rangers- Mistake by keeping Neftali feliz in the closer role, especially aafter losing CLiff Lee. But the offense is scary good. (88-74)

3.) LA Angels- I think this is the year they start showing their age in the OF. (75-87)

4.) Seattle Mariners- Felix hernandez is the best pitcher in baseball. Micheal Pineda will help bolster the rotation, Erik Bedard will also help. Midseaon callup Dustin Ackley will help an anemic offense. (70-92)

AL AWARDS

MVP- Robinson Cano- Back to back 200 hit seasons, back to back 25+ HR seasons, back to back years hitting over .315. I mean whats not to love with this guy. He just turned 28, a age when people usually his their primes, so he should improve his numbers and he plays in a great HR park for LH so he should have 25+ HR easy with potential for 30+ and if he puts up good RBI numbers (even though they are a flawed statistic) it will put him in good standing with voters.

I think he will battle Joe Mauer for the batting title this year, if he can win it and put up similar number to last year in the counting stats he should have a good chance to win the MVP.

 My projected stat line .335/.412/.555 with 32 HR, 120 RBI, 110 R, 40 2B, 3 3B.

Cy Young- Clay Buchholz- A bold call that I said I wasn't going to make, basing an award more on potential than actual results. I know it was only one season and the year before he got sent down the Pawtucket. But I believe he has turned the corner.  He lead the league in ERA+ at 187 and was second among AL pitchers in WAR. 

 But the thing is he still needs improve his K/BB and K/9 rates, if he has a 8+ K/9 and a 2.5+ K/BB, which he has the talent to do, he would become a monster and would definitely contend for a Cy Young.  

 Okay, so my biggest reason for saying he will win this award is he will be at best the Red Sox 3rd starter, behind Beckett and Lester, if not the 4th starter behind those two and Lackey. This means he will usually be facing other teams weaker starters, who in turn should give up more runs, thus making it easier for Clay to pile up wins. If he is around how good he was last year and with the better offense that the Red Sox will employ this should make it easier for him to win a few extra games and possibly get 20+ wins, which usually guarantees a pitcher a Cy Young. 

 I guess we will see if he makes the leap, stands pat or regresses. He has the talent to win a Cy, hopefully he can put it all together.

ROY- Dustin Ackley or Jeremy Hellickson- Picking two candidates for the award, one that should get called up by June, ala Buster Posey last year, and one that will be on the Major League team all year, ala Neftali Feliz last year. This is a volitle award, because you can never really predict who will get called up and how they will handle the next level (I'm talking about you Brandon Wood).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST

1.) Philadelphia Phillies- A pretty easy early schedule should help dampen the impact of the Chase Utley uncertainty. The starting rotation should wreck National League line-up's. (93-69)

2.) Atlanta Braves- This team is primed for another run of domination of the NL East. (92-70) 

3.) Florida Marlins- Can Josh Johnson stay healthy? (81-81)

4.) Washington Nationals- The Mets are just that bad. (73- 89)

5.) New York Mets- #1 pick in the 2012 draft. (66-96)

NL CENTRAL

1.) Milwaukee Brewers- Pitching staff is to good in a weak division. (91-71)

2.) Cincinnati Reds- Can they continue the late inning magic? (89-73)

3.) St. Louis Cardinals- Albert will be Albert, but the Wainright injury will hurt. (81-81)

4.) Pittsburgh Pirates- Black and Yellow, Black and Yellow. (73-89)

4.) Houston Astros- Remember the Bagwell and Biggio days, Houston fans mourn for them. (73-89)

NL WEST

1.) Colorado Rockies- A easy early schedule will give them a leg up on the rest of the division. (93-69)

2.) San Fransico Giants- Pitching is to strong. (92-70) WC

3.) LA Dodgers- Pitching is good, offense is nothing special. (82-80)

4.) Arizona Diamondbacks- Expect alot of strikeout.. from their hitters. (73-89)

AWARDS

MVP- Troy Tulowitzki- He would have one it last year if he didn't break his wrist. Because realistically in the 33 games he missed due to the wrist injury he could have at least added 5 HR, 20 RBI, 20 R, and thats on the low end because he is a notorious second half player with a stat line the last 3 years (2008-2010) .333/.400/.578 (avg/obp/slug) with 39 HR, 146 RBI, 125 R, and a first half line as .252/.331/.451, with 28 HR, 87 RBI, 113 R. So the difference over the last 3 years is .081/.069/.127 and 11 HR, 59 RBI, 12 R.

So its safe to assume over a month he could put up those numbers. So add the conservative stats to his year end total, keeping the rate stats the same, would look something like this. .315/.381/.568 with 32 HR, 115 RBI, 109 R, add in his Gold Glove defense and he would have probably won the 2010 MVP. Also with him in the line-up for 140+ game I think the Rockies make the playoffs and that would have made his case even better.

My Projected stat line .310/.400/.587 with 34 HR, 125 RBI, 110 R, 15 SB, 37 2B, 5 3B.

Cy Young- Tim Lincecum- This is the toughest call of all the awards and could easily change.  But I believe Tim will win, unless he has some trouble dealing with those extra innings he had when he was dominating opposing line-ups during the 2010 Giants World Series run. I don't think he will have any hangover effect because jumps in innings has never affected this athletic freak before. Also in his favor is pitching in the NL West with all there pitcher parks to keep his ERA down. Plus the Padres offense is atrocious, the Diamondbacks strike out a ton, and the Dodgers only has 3 hitters that might scare you depending on if Kemp returns to 2009 form.

He has lead the league in strikeouts every one of his full years in the Majors, and I don't see that changing. I see him improving his his WHIP back to his career rate of 1.182 range and that should help the rest of his stats and should lead to a lower ERA and a higher win total. I dont seeing him having another month like he had in August 2010, I think his mechanics got messed up just enough and he corrected them.

My Projected stat line 19-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 255 K, 81 BB.

ROY- Brandon Belt or Aroldis Chapman

Playoffs

AL

Boston over Oakland 3-1

Minnesota over Tampa Bay 3-0

Boston over Minnesota 4-2

NL

San Fransico over Atlanta 1-0 (Tie- Breaker)

San Fransico over Philadelphia 3-2

Colorado over Milwaukee 3-0

Colorado over San Fransico 4-3

WORLD SERIES 

Boston over Colorado 4-3