Francisco Liriano name has come up recently in trade talk (read more about it here). The main questions to ask are as follows, realistically what can the Twins get for Liriano? And why would the Twins trade the only pitcher on their Major League roster with the makings of an actual ace?
Realistically what can the Twins get for Liriano?
This is a tricky question, because it depends if you believe that he will continue to rise back to his 2006 level of dominance. That and what team are you gonna deal with, because depending on how much they need a #1 or #2 starter will drastically affect their offer. There is no denying that Liriano project to be at least a great #2 starter in this league, and that is why the Yankees are looking at him. But he has the stuff and talent to become a #1 starter, but it get cloudy to wear abouts in the league he would stand as a #1, if he returned to his 2006 dominance he would be at least a Top 10 #1.
So realistically what can the Twins ask for. well you always start out high to see if a bidder bites. So since his name has only come up with the Yankees we will look at what they have to offer.
Jesus Montero- Currently the #3 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He is currently a catcher but has defensive liabilities ala Victor Martinez and with Joe Mauer trenched behind the plate he would be moved. the Yankees have been working him in the OF and he has the bat to stay there. He is pretty can't-miss as far as a prospect goes and would help the Twins with his offensive talent. But I don't believe the Yankees would trade him, cause the wavered at including him in the Cliff Lee deal.
The other two names that are mentioned are Ivan Nova and Joba Chamberlain, but I really don't seeing the Twins trading Liriano for one or really even both. They have been burned before on trades like this (ex. Johan Santana). But even if they wanted to look at these two guys nova projected to be a back or the rotation guy and I don't believe anything can help Joba. But I could be wrong, Joba might just need a change of scenery. He did have killer stuff when he came into the league.
But unless Montero was included I wouldn't trade Liriano if i were the Twins.
Why would the Twins trade the only pitcher on their Major League roster with the makings of an actual ace?
So why would the Twins even think about trading Liriano? The simplest answer would be cost and not knowing whether they can resign or not. Well Liriano has another year of arbitration which if he doesn't take the twins initial offer would likely be in the 5-7 million dollar range. But if the Twins were smart they would try and sign him to a Jon Lester type deal 5 years for $30 million over the length of the contract, they could either back load the contract like the Red Sox did ( years/$30M (2009-13), 09:$1M, 10:$3.75M, 11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)) or they could front load it just in case he gets hurt later on in the contract (as an example just flip the payments the Sox gave Lester) or offer him a Zack Greinke type deal 4 years/$38M, either way that is a cost efficient way to keep a potential ace. The Twins also could keep his salary the same annually ($6M a year in a Lester type deal, and $9.5M in a Greinke type deal).
My opinion is try and sign him this year before he possibly explodes and wants a Johan type deal. Sign him early before his success gets to his head and you can still afford him. Also you don't want to have to rush to a trade partner and hurt his potential trade value and get a bad haul.
I don't think these talk are very serious. But they could be. I guess we will see.
-B
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