Usually when I write these types of posts I am a slave to my unrealistic expectations, as I have picked my AL MVP on B.J. Upton's talent and potential instead of actual results. Here is last years picks, scroll to the bottom for awards. So this year I plan to base these picks on actual results. So here are my picks, which will be slightly modified after Spring Training concludes.
National League Awards
MVP
Troy Tulowitzki- He would have one it last year if he didn't break his wrist. Because realistically in the 33 games he missed due to the wrist injury he could have at least added 5 HR, 20 RBI, 20 R, and thats on the low end because he is a notorious second half player with a stat line the last 3 years (2008-2010) .333/.400/.578 (avg/obp/slug) with 39 HR, 146 RBI, 125 R, and a first half line as .252/.331/.451, with 28 HR, 87 RBI, 113 R. So the difference over the last 3 years is .081/.069/.127 and 11 HR, 59 RBI, 12 R.
So its safe to assume over a month he could put up those numbers. So add the conservative stats to his year end total, keeping the rate stats the same, would look something like this. .315/.381/.568 with 32 HR, 115 RBI, 109 R, add in his Gold Glove defense and he would have probably won the 2010 MVP. Also with him in the line-up for 140+ game I think the Rockies make the playoffs and that would have made his case even better.
My Projected stat line .310/.400/.587 with 34 HR, 125 RBI, 110 R, 15 SB, 37 2B, 5 3B.
Cy Young
Tim Lincecum- This is the toughest call of all the awards and could easily change. But I believe Tim will win, unless he has some trouble dealing with those extra innings he had when he was dominating opposing line-ups during the 2010 Giants World Series run. I don't think he will have any hangover effect because jumps in innings has never affected this athletic freak before. Also in his favor is pitching in the NL West with all there pitcher parks to keep his ERA down. Plus the Padres offense is atrocious, the Diamondbacks strike out a ton, and the Dodgers only has 3 hitters that might scare you depending on if Kemp returns to 2009 form.
He has lead the league in strikeouts every one of his full years in the Majors, and I don't see that changing. I see him improving his his WHIP back to his career rate of 1.182 range and that should help the rest of his stats and should lead to a lower ERA and a higher win total. I dont seeing him having another month like he had in August 2010, I think his mechanics got messed up just enough and he corrected them.
My Projected stat line 19-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 255 K, 81 BB.
Rookie of the Year
Aroldis Chapman- This is an early prediction and will definitely change if he doesn't have a chance of becoming the Reds closer. More on this award after Spring Training when we know the roles of the Rookies.
American League
MVP
Robinson Cano- Back to back 200 hit seasons, back to back 25+ HR seasons, back to back years hitting over .315. I mean whats not to love with this guy. He just turned 28, a age when people usually his their primes, so he should improve his numbers and he plays in a great HR park for LH so he should have 25+ HR easy with potential for 30+ and if he puts up good RBI numbers (even though they are a flawed statistic) it will put him in good standing with voters.
I think he will battle Joe Mauer for the batting title this year, if he can win it and put up similar number to last year in the counting stats he should have a good chance to win the MVP.
My projected stat line .335/.412/.555 with 32 HR, 120 RBI, 110 R, 40 2B, 3 3B.
Cy Young
Clay Buchholz- A bold call that I said I wasn't going to make, basing an award more on potential than actual results. I know it was only one season and the year before he got sent down the Pawtucket. But I believe he has turned the corner. He lead the league in ERA+ at 187 and was second among AL pitchers in WAR.
But the thing is he still needs improve his K/BB and K/9 rates, if he has a 8+ K/9 and a 2.5+ K/BB, which he has the talent to do, he would become a monster and would definitely contend for a Cy Young.
Okay, so my biggest reason for saying he will win this award is he will be at best the Red Sox 3rd starter, behind Beckett and Lester, if not the 4th starter behind those two and Lackey. This means he will usually be facing other teams weaker starters, who in turn should give up more runs, thus making it easier for Clay to pile up wins. If he is around how good he was last year and with the better offense that the Red Sox will employ this should make it easier for him to win a few extra games and possibly get 20+ wins, which usually guarantees a pitcher a Cy Young.
I guess we will see if he makes the leap, stands pat or regresses. He has the talent to win a Cy, hopefully he can put it all together.
So there are my thoughts, more to come after Spring Training is over, when rookies roles are more clearly defined, all of the pre-season injuries that could derail a season happen and stuff that you can't account for until opening day happens.
Overall it should be a fun season to watch and see how everything shapes up through out the divisions and leagues. To see what players breakout, what stars take the leap into superstardom. To see what rookies help their teams to pthe playoff and ultimately a World Series title.
As always I am excited for the season to start to see what is in store.
Division winner and playoff predictions to come soon.
-B
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Friday, March 4, 2011
Twins Pitching Conundrum
Twins Currently have 6 players who have held a spot in the rotation over the past few seasons. Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Brian Duensing. Going into the season Manager Ron Gardenhire has few decisions to make about the makeup of his starting rotation and the relievers. Liriano, Pavano, Baker and Duensing all seem to have their spots locked up because their contract situations and their past pitching performances. The real questions are with Kevin Slowey's health and Nick Blackburn's sinker. Both players have proven that they can be effective in a starting role when all is right with them.
The bullpen has been left with large holes with the departures of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jon Rauch. All three left via free agency in the offseason along with Brian Fuentes whom we claimed off waivers from the Angels last August. In past years we have had comparable questions going into Opening Day and typically the Twins fill from within rather than giving multi year contracts to free agents. Which is what they chose to do this season as well. My belief is Kevin Slowey will fill the long relief role to begin the season along with lefty Glen Perkins who showed signs of improvement during last September when rosters were expanded. Jose Mijares is returning as a middle relief guy. Also, the return of Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek will help out considerably if they return to pre-injury form. Matt Capps showed he could be reliable as the closer recording 16 saves and posting a 2.00 ERA after replacing Jon Rauch last season after being traded from Washington. He will most likely be the teams set up man if Joe Nathan is good to go heading into the season. This leaves a few more spots to be filled by opening day. Possible candidates for the remaining relief spots are Jeff Manship, Scott Diamond, Dusty Hughes, and Alex Burnett.
-NX
The bullpen has been left with large holes with the departures of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jon Rauch. All three left via free agency in the offseason along with Brian Fuentes whom we claimed off waivers from the Angels last August. In past years we have had comparable questions going into Opening Day and typically the Twins fill from within rather than giving multi year contracts to free agents. Which is what they chose to do this season as well. My belief is Kevin Slowey will fill the long relief role to begin the season along with lefty Glen Perkins who showed signs of improvement during last September when rosters were expanded. Jose Mijares is returning as a middle relief guy. Also, the return of Joe Nathan and Pat Neshek will help out considerably if they return to pre-injury form. Matt Capps showed he could be reliable as the closer recording 16 saves and posting a 2.00 ERA after replacing Jon Rauch last season after being traded from Washington. He will most likely be the teams set up man if Joe Nathan is good to go heading into the season. This leaves a few more spots to be filled by opening day. Possible candidates for the remaining relief spots are Jeff Manship, Scott Diamond, Dusty Hughes, and Alex Burnett.
-NX
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Francisco Liriano on the trading block?
Francisco Liriano name has come up recently in trade talk (read more about it here). The main questions to ask are as follows, realistically what can the Twins get for Liriano? And why would the Twins trade the only pitcher on their Major League roster with the makings of an actual ace?
Realistically what can the Twins get for Liriano?
This is a tricky question, because it depends if you believe that he will continue to rise back to his 2006 level of dominance. That and what team are you gonna deal with, because depending on how much they need a #1 or #2 starter will drastically affect their offer. There is no denying that Liriano project to be at least a great #2 starter in this league, and that is why the Yankees are looking at him. But he has the stuff and talent to become a #1 starter, but it get cloudy to wear abouts in the league he would stand as a #1, if he returned to his 2006 dominance he would be at least a Top 10 #1.
So realistically what can the Twins ask for. well you always start out high to see if a bidder bites. So since his name has only come up with the Yankees we will look at what they have to offer.
Jesus Montero- Currently the #3 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He is currently a catcher but has defensive liabilities ala Victor Martinez and with Joe Mauer trenched behind the plate he would be moved. the Yankees have been working him in the OF and he has the bat to stay there. He is pretty can't-miss as far as a prospect goes and would help the Twins with his offensive talent. But I don't believe the Yankees would trade him, cause the wavered at including him in the Cliff Lee deal.
The other two names that are mentioned are Ivan Nova and Joba Chamberlain, but I really don't seeing the Twins trading Liriano for one or really even both. They have been burned before on trades like this (ex. Johan Santana). But even if they wanted to look at these two guys nova projected to be a back or the rotation guy and I don't believe anything can help Joba. But I could be wrong, Joba might just need a change of scenery. He did have killer stuff when he came into the league.
But unless Montero was included I wouldn't trade Liriano if i were the Twins.
Why would the Twins trade the only pitcher on their Major League roster with the makings of an actual ace?
So why would the Twins even think about trading Liriano? The simplest answer would be cost and not knowing whether they can resign or not. Well Liriano has another year of arbitration which if he doesn't take the twins initial offer would likely be in the 5-7 million dollar range. But if the Twins were smart they would try and sign him to a Jon Lester type deal 5 years for $30 million over the length of the contract, they could either back load the contract like the Red Sox did ( years/$30M (2009-13), 09:$1M, 10:$3.75M, 11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)) or they could front load it just in case he gets hurt later on in the contract (as an example just flip the payments the Sox gave Lester) or offer him a Zack Greinke type deal 4 years/$38M, either way that is a cost efficient way to keep a potential ace. The Twins also could keep his salary the same annually ($6M a year in a Lester type deal, and $9.5M in a Greinke type deal).
My opinion is try and sign him this year before he possibly explodes and wants a Johan type deal. Sign him early before his success gets to his head and you can still afford him. Also you don't want to have to rush to a trade partner and hurt his potential trade value and get a bad haul.
I don't think these talk are very serious. But they could be. I guess we will see.
-B
Realistically what can the Twins get for Liriano?
This is a tricky question, because it depends if you believe that he will continue to rise back to his 2006 level of dominance. That and what team are you gonna deal with, because depending on how much they need a #1 or #2 starter will drastically affect their offer. There is no denying that Liriano project to be at least a great #2 starter in this league, and that is why the Yankees are looking at him. But he has the stuff and talent to become a #1 starter, but it get cloudy to wear abouts in the league he would stand as a #1, if he returned to his 2006 dominance he would be at least a Top 10 #1.
So realistically what can the Twins ask for. well you always start out high to see if a bidder bites. So since his name has only come up with the Yankees we will look at what they have to offer.
Jesus Montero- Currently the #3 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. He is currently a catcher but has defensive liabilities ala Victor Martinez and with Joe Mauer trenched behind the plate he would be moved. the Yankees have been working him in the OF and he has the bat to stay there. He is pretty can't-miss as far as a prospect goes and would help the Twins with his offensive talent. But I don't believe the Yankees would trade him, cause the wavered at including him in the Cliff Lee deal.
The other two names that are mentioned are Ivan Nova and Joba Chamberlain, but I really don't seeing the Twins trading Liriano for one or really even both. They have been burned before on trades like this (ex. Johan Santana). But even if they wanted to look at these two guys nova projected to be a back or the rotation guy and I don't believe anything can help Joba. But I could be wrong, Joba might just need a change of scenery. He did have killer stuff when he came into the league.
But unless Montero was included I wouldn't trade Liriano if i were the Twins.
Why would the Twins trade the only pitcher on their Major League roster with the makings of an actual ace?
So why would the Twins even think about trading Liriano? The simplest answer would be cost and not knowing whether they can resign or not. Well Liriano has another year of arbitration which if he doesn't take the twins initial offer would likely be in the 5-7 million dollar range. But if the Twins were smart they would try and sign him to a Jon Lester type deal 5 years for $30 million over the length of the contract, they could either back load the contract like the Red Sox did ( years/$30M (2009-13), 09:$1M, 10:$3.75M, 11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)) or they could front load it just in case he gets hurt later on in the contract (as an example just flip the payments the Sox gave Lester) or offer him a Zack Greinke type deal 4 years/$38M, either way that is a cost efficient way to keep a potential ace. The Twins also could keep his salary the same annually ($6M a year in a Lester type deal, and $9.5M in a Greinke type deal).
My opinion is try and sign him this year before he possibly explodes and wants a Johan type deal. Sign him early before his success gets to his head and you can still afford him. Also you don't want to have to rush to a trade partner and hurt his potential trade value and get a bad haul.
I don't think these talk are very serious. But they could be. I guess we will see.
-B
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